Based on dismal economic figures in the country after seven years of Barack Obama, author-historian Robert W. Merry says it is likely Donald Trump will win the presidential election in November.
And based on “analytic structure” – Trump could very well win in a landslide.
Zero Hedge reported:
Suppose this election isn’t about Trump or Hillary at all. Suppose, as political scientists Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell claimed in their 1988 book, Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, that all presidential elections from 1860 to the present are referendums on the sitting president and his party.
If the public views the sitting president’s second term favorably, the candidate from his party will win the election. If the public views the sitting president’s second term unfavorably, the candidate from the other party will win the election.
(Lichtman published another book on his system in 2008, The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President.)
Author/historian Robert W. Merry sorts through the 13 analytic keys in the current issue of The American Conservativemagazine and concludes they “could pose bad news for Clinton.”
If five or fewer are negative for the incumbent, the incumbent party will win the election. If six or more are negative, the incumbent party loses the election. Merry counts eight negatives for President Obama’s second term, which if true spells defeat for the Clinton ticket.
Whether the 13 issues are positive or negative for the candidates is of course open to debate, butconsider what it means that Trump won the Republican nomination despite the near-universal opposition of the Establishment.
Consider that some polls found that 68 percent of adults think the country is on the wrong trackand a recent average of six polls on the subject concluded that 64% of adults feel the nation is moving in the wrong direction.
This means 2/3 of the nation’s adults no longer buy into the Establishment/ mainstream media’s narrative that the economy is expanding nicely, things are going in the right direction and Hillary Clinton has a lock on the presidency…
…Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November–he might win by a landslide–with landslide usually being defined by an overwhelming advantage in electoral college votes or 60% of the popular vote.
Read the rest here.