Electoral College Map. 8/25/2016

References and detail below,

Considering Turnouts, Which State: TRUMP has 2% leads, I classify it as ‘lean to TRUMP’ (when TRUMP is behind, until 4% gap = Swing States.)

Because he has an edge of turnouts for sure.

Plus, if Current poll is skewed too much. I also considered of that factor.

TRUMP already proved it GOP Primary&Caucus.(Especially in Swing States. (Avg poll numbers from Real Clear Politics.)

NH Primary. (avg 31% on the Polls -> Primary Day 35.3% +4.3%)

NV Caucus. (avg 42% on the Polls -> Caucus Day 45.9% +.39%)

Florida Primary. ( avg 43.0% on the Polls -> Primary Day 45.8% +2.8%)

Pennsylvania. ( avg 48.3% on the Polls -> Primary Day 58.1% +9.8%)

1. Toss Up Swing States : Total 107 Electoral Votes

1) Colorado(9 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (August, 12-19th, 2016 ) 420 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/

Hillary 42% | TRUMP 39%

 

2) Iowa (6 Electoral votes)

(1) CBS/YouGov (8/17-8/19, 2016) 983 LV
My Analysis Post:http://Statespoll.com/post/149272088870

My Conversion: TRUMP +3.78%

(2) Ipsos/Reuters (7/29-8/19, 2016 ) 369 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/#plus

Hillary 41% | TRUMP 41%

3) Michigan: 16 Electoral votes

(1) Suffolk, 8/22-8/24, 500 LV

MY Analysis Post: http://Statespoll.com/post/149469005890

My Conversion: Hillary +2.4%

(2) Ipsos/Reuters (8/12-8/19, 2016 ) 500 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/#plus

Hillary 44% | TRUMP 43%

4) Nevada (6 Electoral votes)

(1) Suffolk, 8/15-8/17, 500 LV

MY Analysis Post: http://Statespoll.com/post/149131398340

My Conversion: Tied

(2) Ipsos/Reuters (7/29-8/19, 2016 ) 500 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/#plus

Hillary 40% | TRUMP 38%

5) New Hampshire: (4 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (7/29-8/19, 2016 ) 163 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/#plus

Hillary 41% | TRUMP 39%

6) Ohio (18 Electoral votes)

(1) CBS/YouGov, 8/17-8/19, 997 LV
My Analysis Post: http://statespoll.com/post/149271822895

My Conversion: TRUMP +1.6%

7) Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (8/12-8/19, 2016 ) 771 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

Hillary 46% | TRUMP 45%

8) Oregon(7 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (7/29-8/19, 2016 ) 444 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/oregon/#plus

Hillary 43% | TRUMP 39%

 

9) Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (August, 12-19th, 2016 ) 512 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#plus

Hillary 38% | TRUMP 37% 

1-2. Swing States which are lean to TRUMP : Total 92 Electoral votes

1) Florida(29 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Florida Atlantic University, 8/19-8/22, 1200 LV

TRUMP 43% | Hillary 41% | Johnson 8% | Stein 2%

http://statespoll.com/post/149415093365  (My Analysis Post)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_Analytics_FL_July_2016.pdf

(2) Cherry Communications(Chamber of Commerce) 8/17-8/22, 608 LV

TRUMP 44% | Hillary 41% | Johnson 9% 

http://www.flchamber.com/politicians-parties-and-plaintiff-trial-lawyers-are-unknown-or-unliked-in-new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll/

2) Maine Statewide (2 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (7/29-8/19 ) 210 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine/#plus

TRUMP 37% | Hillary 33%

2-2) Maine 2nd District (1 Electoral votes)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine/#plus

3) North Carolina (15 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) CNN, 8/18-8/23, 803 LV

My Analysis Post: http://Statespoll.com/post/149443668285

My Conversion: TRUMP +2.4%

1-3. Swing States which are lean to Hillary : Total 30 Electoral votes

1) Connecticut(7 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (7/29-8/19 ) 358 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/connecticut/#plus

Hillary 50% | TRUMP 37%

2) Minnesota (10 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (8/12-8/19 ) 541 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/minnesota/#plus

Hillary 42% | TRUMP 34%

3) Virginia: 13 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters  (8/12-8/19 ) 643 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/#plus

Hillary 45% | TRUMP 39% |  

2. Basic Red States for TRUMP: 164 Electoral Votes

Alabama(9),Alaska(3), Arkansas(6), Wyoming(3)

Idaho(4), Indiana(11),Kansas(6),Kentucky(8),Louisiana(8),West Virginia(5)

Mississippi(6) Missouri(10),Montana(3),Nebraska(4),South Carolina(9) Texas(38)NorthDakota(3),Oklahoma(7),SouthDakota(3),Tennessee(11),Utah(6)

2-2. Kinda Red States which are lean to TRUMP : 27 Electoral Votes

1) Arizona: 11 Electoral votes

(1) CNN, 8/18-8/23, 809 LV.   TRUMP 45% | Hillary 38% | Johnson 12%

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/24/politics/arizona-north-carolina-polls-trump-clinton/index.html

(2) Ipsos/Reuters   (7/29-8/19 ) 438 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/#plus

TRUMP 47% | Hillary 39%

2) Georgia: 16 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters  (8/12-8/19 ) 522 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/georgia/#plus

TRUMP 46% | Hillary 42%

3. Basic Blue States for Hillary: 143 Electoral Votes

California(55),Delaware(3),DC(3),Hawaii(4),Illinois(20)

Maine-CD1(1),Maryland(10),Massachusettes(11),

New York(29),Rhode Island(4),Vermont(3)

 

3-2. Kinda Blue States which are lean to Hillary : 31 Electoral Votes

1) New Mexico(5 Electoral votes)

(1) PPP, 8/18-8/23, 1103 LV

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/89809/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-nm-johnson-strong/

Hillary 40% | TRUMP 31% | Johnson 16% | Stein 4%

(2) Ipsos/Reuters  (7/29-8/19 ) 115 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plus

Hillary 44% | TRUMP 41% |  

2) New Jersey(14 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters  (8/12-8/19 ) 765 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/#plus

Hillary 46% | TRUMP 33% |  

3) Washington(12 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters   (7/29-8/19 ) 399 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/washington/#plus

Hillary 45% | TRUMP 33% |  

Source: statespoll.com

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